I was just thinking about the early 19th century when Irish had been declining but was not yet the minority language that it now is. AFAIK, by the time of the Famine Irish was still the language of about half the population. To what extent had the shift towards English as the majority language taken hold?
And was it irreversible at that stage? For instance, if Ireland had regained its independence a century earlier (say the United Irishmen had been more successful and had better French help or something like that - though they seem to have been more concerned with political than cultural independence), would it have made any great difference or would English have continued to be the language of administration and governance etc and continued to spread?

I think the historians date the watershed for the language shift to 1820. I remember something like that in Alan Titley's pocket history of Gaelic Culture.

Estimates for Irish speaking population:

1821 (Christopher Anderson)

Irish speakers: 3.75 million
Total population: 6.8 million
Percent Irish speaking: 55%

1835 (J.M. Lappenberg)

Irish speakers: 4 million
Total population: 7.8 million
Percent Irish speaking: 51%

1841 (Christopher Anderson)

Irish speakers: 4.1 million
Total population: 8.2 million
Percentage Irish speaking: 50%

1842 (MacComber)

Irish speakers: 3.0 million
Total population: Not given (let's presume 8 million)
Percentage Irish speaking: c 37.5%

1851 (First Census with language question)

Irish speakers: 1.5 million
Total population: 6.5 million
Percentage Irish speaking: 23%

I also have figures from estimates and surveys made in 1799, 1812 and 1814. The estimates range from 44-51%.

So, the period 1820-1845 (the eve of the Famine) is the most likely time when Ireland become predominantly English speaking.

One could argue that Ireland was divided almost down the middle in terms of language in the Famine period. It was like two different countries in a way.

Even in 1851, after the worst ravages of the famine and a massive drop in the percentage and sheer number of Irish speakers, they still made up a majority in Munster, for example. Almost a majority in Connacht as well.

You had less than 200 speakers recorded for all of County Wicklow, but over 300,000 in Co. Cork alone. You had Baronies in Galway, Donegal and Mayo where monoglots made up the bulk of the local population (7,000+ in each in some cases) yet districts in east Ulster, north Tipperary and Kildare where Irish was almost unknown.

Galway city had an Irish speaking majority in 1851!

It's also interesting to note that, contrary to what some think, sizeable Gaeltachtaí existed in Leinster (Kilkenny, Meath and Louth) well into the second half of the 19th century.

(Message edited by Danny2007 on February 11, 2009)

If the United Irishmen had won, I can't see them adopting Irish too quick.

On the other hand, the Ascendancy would have being very confident at that time, would have intervened in the Famine (as they had done before), and the monoglot 'rump' would not have gone, so we can assume that the Irish speaking communities would have held together better and for longer.

However, we can't say if their win would not have sped it up!

We shouldn't forget the the Famine swept away not only a very high proportion of the Irish speakers but that it set the aspirations of the Young Ireland movement at nought. The untimely death of its leader Thomas Davis in 1845 saw his hopes for a language and cultural revival along with political independence, dashed. Davis' plea for the language is still capable of sending a shiver up the spine of a language enthusiast to this day. He of course, hoped for a 'parity of esteem' to use a current phrase, rather than a triumph by one language over the other.

When in the late 1860s the Fenian/Clan na Gael movement reached its climax the language seemed to be already on its way to the tokenism we were later to become so familiar with in so many aspects of Irish life [they got the grammar wrong]. It wasn't until the politicisation of The Gaelic League, against the pleas of Douglas Hyde, that the language looked for a while to have regained its place as a central pillar of the coming struggle for nationhood, but we know how that ended.

I doubt there would have been a massive resurgence in Irish immediately after a successful 1798.
I think we may have seen it to some extent around the middle of the 19th century, though, when there was a rise in cultural nationalism and an interest in native languages, traditions and folklore all over Europe. Not only in nations ruled by more powerful neighbours but also in independent states like Denmark.
Even as things were this trend reached Ireland and had an effect. How much greater might it have been if the elite of the young state had been favourable to it and seen it as an opportunity to help bind it together and give it a greater sense of common identity.